Chapter 1: Understanding Astrology's Popularity

Many individuals struggle to reconcile the idea that celestial positions at the time of one's birth could dictate core personality traits. This concept lies at the heart of astrology. Among various astrological practices, “sun sign astrology” or “horoscopes” is the most recognized.

A survey conducted in the U.S. revealed that about one-third of American adults either "somewhat" or "strongly" believe in the accuracy of horoscopes, while 16% remain uncertain about their views.

In light of this, some researchers have sought to empirically assess the validity of astrology, although securing funding for such research proves to be challenging. Recently, the startup Clearer Thinking undertook this endeavor.

Initially, the team executed a preliminary study, attempting to forecast responses to 37 questions pertaining to individuals' lives using common astrological theories and horoscopes. These questions examined various facets such as satisfaction in social, work, and personal spheres, belief systems, time dedicated to volunteerism, and familial relationships, including instances of self-harm contemplation.

Spencer Greenberg, who spearheaded the experiment, shared on social media platform X, “The Big Five personality traits can predict these facts quite well, but horoscopes failed to accurately predict any of them.”

The findings were met with significant backlash, especially from practitioners of astrology who assert their deep understanding of the field. Critics pointed out that sun signs represent only a basic element of astrology; true astrologers interpret individuals' lives by analyzing a complete astrological chart created at their birth, known as the natal chart.

In response to this criticism, the research team recruited six seasoned astrologers to help design a new experiment.

Section 1.1: A Closer Look at the New Experiment

In this follow-up study, the researchers enlisted 152 astrologers who believed they had a solid grasp of astrological principles. Each participant received background information on 12 real individuals, along with responses to 43 questions detailing their lives and personalities.

Furthermore, each individual was linked to five natal charts, with only one being authentic, while the others served as decoys. The astrologers were tasked with identifying the correct natal chart corresponding to each person based on the provided background information.

“The fundamental claim of astrology is that a person’s natal chart contains information about their life and personality,” Greenberg explained. Thus, if the volunteers genuinely possessed astrological insights, their accuracy rate should significantly surpass random guessing, which stands at 20%.

Despite their confidence, claiming they could accurately match natal charts for over six individuals, the final results were disappointing. On average, the astrologers correctly identified only 2.49 out of 12 natal charts, achieving an accuracy rate of merely 20.75%. The top-performing astrologer managed to identify just 5 charts correctly.

An additional observation emerged: even disregarding correctness, there was no consistent agreement among the astrologers regarding which chart matched which individual, underscoring a lack of consensus.

“In summary, despite their confidence, the 152 astrologers did not seem to demonstrate an ability to interpret natal charts,” Greenberg remarked.

Subsection 1.1.1: The Houdini Principle

The debate surrounding supernatural claims often places scientists in a complex position. Naomi Oreskes, a historian of science at Harvard University, emphasizes the importance of relying on credible scientific information rather than the assertions of speculative outsiders in her “Science Lens” column in the August edition of Scientific American.

She references a notable experiment regarding the “weight of the soul” conducted by Duncan Macdougall in 1907. Under the scrutiny of four medical colleagues, Macdougall purportedly measured the weight fluctuations of several individuals at the moment of death. For one person, the scale indicated a loss of about twenty grams, while another, described as “stout and calm,” exhibited a delayed weight loss attributed to their sluggish personality.

Although Macdougall claimed to have verified the existence of the soul, his contemporaries largely disagreed. His experiments, along with others of a similar nature, were fundamentally flawed due to their reliance on the presumption that the soul's existence was real, a classic case of circular reasoning.

Oreskes reminds us that today, many individuals, including some esteemed scientists, make various claims outside their areas of expertise.

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